Match Info

ENGLAND: NPL Premier Division - Round 28

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday


	Workington		Matlock Town

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.4	2.15
	2.8	3.45	2.19
	2.93	3.59	2.25
	2.9	3.3	2.15
	2.81	3.44	2.21
	2.8	3.45	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.43)	3.44 ↓ (3.46)	2.19 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Workington
32.1%

Draw
26.4%

Matlock Town
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

26.5%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

26.4%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Workington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Workington's form might have worsened.

Matlock Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matlock Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Workington than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Workington, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matlock Town than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matlock Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Workington - Matlock Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Nugent K. ⚽,
11', 2 - 0, Little J. ⚽,
44', 2 - 1, Thompson J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', 3 - 1, Stephenson T. ⚽,
72', 3 - 2, Essien S. ⚽,
76', 4 - 2, Grewal R. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Workington won 2.

Workington is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Matlock is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Matlock could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Workington won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 21:21 (average 1.4:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Workington won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13:11 (average 1.9:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Workington
English NPL Premier Division
04.01.25	Workington - Guiseley	0:2 ✺
01.01.25	Hebburn Town - Workington	3:1 ✺
26.12.24	Workington - Morpeth Town	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	Lancaster City - Workington	1:1 ✺
14.12.24	Warrington Rylands - Workington	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLTTL
- Matlock Town
English NPL Premier Division
14.01.25	Matlock Town - Prescot Cables	2:1 ✺
01.01.25	Leek Town - Matlock Town	3:3 ✺
26.12.24	Matlock Town - Ilkeston	4:0 ✺
14.12.24	Matlock Town - Mickleover Sports	2:0 ✺
30.11.24	Morpeth Town - Matlock Town	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
14.09.24	Matlock Town - Workington	2:1
24.02.24	Workington - Matlock Town	2:1
14.10.23	Matlock Town - Workington	2:2
08.12.18	Matlock Town - Workington	2:1
01.09.18	Workington - Matlock Town	3:1
21.04.18	Matlock Town - Workington	2:0
23.09.17	Workington - Matlock Town	0:1

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