Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Spartak (Semey)

Referee: Chekhovsky G. (Kaz)


	Yelimay Semey		Kaspiy Aktau

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.55	6.3	Watch
	1.4	4.75	6.51
	1.43	4.3	6.51	Watch
	1.4	4	6
	1.42	4.58	7.02	Watch
	1.45	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.7)	4.26 ↓ (4.29)	6.22 ↑ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yelimay Semey
64.1%

Draw
21.3%

Kaspiy Aktau
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

21.5%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

18.1%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yelimay Semey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Yelimay Semey's performance.

Kaspiy Aktau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kaspiy Aktau might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yelimay Semey than the current prediction. (-18.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Yelimay Semey that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaspiy Aktau than the current prediction. (+14.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kaspiy Aktau could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Yelimay Semey - Kaspiy Aktau Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Stojkovic V. (G) 3. Higor Gabriel 4. Zhumakhanov A. 5. Belancic M. 10. Payruz Z. 23. Ilic H. 44. Tyulyubay A. 18. Orazov R. (C) 14. Palacio D. 77. Placca F. 19. Zhaksylykov A.	24. Zhomart D. (G) 21. Aripov D. 14. Amaral A. 30. Morgado B. 29. Bekmyrza A. 23. Nabikhanov A. (C) 7. Kabylan B. 67. Berdibek D. 13. Serikbay M. 11. Ndombasi N. 27. Esimbekov D.
Substitutes
2. Adambaev A. 17. Bakhtiyarov A. 83. Baygaliev A. 88. Baygaliev A. 27. Berezkin E. 7. Murtazaev R. 16. Ndreca E. 22. Pivkin N. (G) 11. Sviridov I. 1. Tsuprikov E. (G) 67. Zhilin A.	1. Ayazbaev N. (G) 55. Elemes N. 18. Kucheriavyi M. 28. Petrovic B. 15. Serikbay A. 9. Zulfikarov B.
Coaches
Karpovich A.	Shoytymov E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Berdibek D. ↓, Zulfikarov B. ↑,
53', Kabylan B. 🟨,
55', Morgado B. 🟨,
59', Payruz Z. ↓, Bakhtiyarov A. ↑,
59', Zhaksylykov A. ↓, Sviridov I. ↑,
69', Placca F. ↓, Murtazaev R. ↑,
69', Bekmyrza A. 🟨,
72', Kabylan B. ↓, Serikbay A. ↑,
73', Zhomart D. 🟨,
78', 0 - 1, Ndombasi N. ⚽,
82', Higor Gabriel ↓, Berezkin E. ↑,
86', Aripov D. ↓, Elemes N. ↑,
86', Bekmyrza A. ↓, Petrovic B. ↑,
86', 🟨,
90+5', Ndombasi N. ↓, Kucheriavyi M. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

In recent matches, Yelimay has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kaspiy's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

In this match, Yelimay is considered a favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Yelimay Semey	25	10	8	7	35:33	2	38
10	Kaspij Aktau	26	8	5	13	27:36	-9	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yelimay Semey
Kazakh Premier League
03.05.26	Ulytau - Yelimay Semey	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
30.04.26	Aktobe - Yelimay Semey	2:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Kairat - Yelimay Semey	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Astana	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Zhetysu - Yelimay Semey	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLTTW
- FC Kaspiy Aktau
Kazakh Premier League
03.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
30.04.26	Ordabasy - Kaspiy Aktau	3:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kaspiy Aktau	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Kairat - Kaspiy Aktau	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Aktobe - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLLLL

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