Match Info

Premier League - Round 7

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay)

Referee: Ismuratov A. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Sport+


	Tobol Kostanay		Kaspiy Aktau

	1	X	2
	1.49	4.05	5.7
	1.49	4.05	6.06
	1.42	4.44	6.28	Watch
	1.44	3.8	6
	1.49	4.18	6.47	Watch
	1.41	3.66	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.56)	4.03 ↑ (3.62)	6.25 ↑ (5.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol Kostanay
62.7%

Draw
22.7%

Kaspiy Aktau
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

25.5%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

19.9%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Kaspiy Aktau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-16.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tobol Kostanay that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaspiy Aktau than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kaspiy Aktau could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tobol Kostanay - Kaspiy Aktau Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Busurmanov S. (G) 4. Cavnic N. 13. Cisse A. 5. Ndiaye P. 21. Zhagorov N. 8. Tagybergen A. 19. Zhumat D. 3. Asrankulov R. 7. Zhumashev Z. 30. Guerra L. 18. Milovanovic U.	24. Zhomart D. (G) 5. Strumia L. 23. Nabikhanov A. 30. Morgado B. 21. Aripov D. 11. Ndombasi N. 13. Serikbay M. 27. Esimbekov D. 19. Taykenov M. 9. Zulfikarov B. 10. Umaev I.
Substitutes
26. Glushchenkov K. 88. Kalmyrza M. 11. Marat D. 22. Marochkin A. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 6. Myakish M. 14. Talal A. 29. Usenov D. 44. Ustimenko D. (G) 15. Vukcevic M. 99. Zinadin A. 17. Zuev A.	33. Alan Dias 8. Armenov A. 1. Ayazbaev N. (G) 67. Berdibek D. 55. Elemes N. 99. Gustavo Franca 4. Kadyrbaev E. 15. Serikbay A. 77. Zhazmagambetov Z.
Coaches
Zhumaskaliyev N.	Aliev P.

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 3.

Tobol has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Kaspiy Aktau is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Kaspiy Aktau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tobol is the obvious favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.1:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Tobol won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Tobol	26	10	4	12	33:35	-2	34
10	Kaspij Aktau	26	8	5	13	27:36	-9	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
19.04.26	Ulytau - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kairat	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
20.03.26	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	Tobol Kostanay - Zhetysu	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLLT
- FC Kaspiy Aktau
Kazakh Premier League
18.04.26	Kairat - Kaspiy Aktau	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Aktobe - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Zhetysu	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Altai Semey - Kaspiy Aktau	0:0 ✺
17.03.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Okzhetpes	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
21.10.23	Tobol Kostanay - Kaspiy Aktau	1:1
10.03.23	Kaspiy Aktau - Tobol Kostanay	0:1
19.06.22	Tobol Kostanay - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0
11.03.22	Kaspiy Aktau - Tobol Kostanay	0:0
12.09.21	Tobol Kostanay - Kaspiy Aktau	2:1
28.04.21	Kaspiy Aktau - Tobol Kostanay	2:1
18.10.20	Kaspiy Aktau - Tobol Kostanay	0:1

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