Match Info

Premier League - Round 8

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Zhestar Stadium (Aktau)

Referee: Sariev B. (Kaz)


	Kaspiy Aktau		Astana

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.5	1.68
	5.15	3.95	1.55	Watch
	5	4	1.53
	5.11	4.3	1.52	Watch
	4.33	3.3	1.73
	6.26	4.15	1.51	Watch
	5.33	3.33	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.04 ↓ (6.91)	3.79 ↓ (3.86)	1.57 ↑ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kaspiy Aktau
18%

Draw
24%

Astana
58%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.3%

23.8%

62.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.8%

22.8%

65.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kaspiy Aktau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kaspiy Aktau than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kaspiy Aktau that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Astana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Kaspiy Aktau - Astana Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Astana (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Kaspiy (3.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Astana will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kaspiy (votes: 1 - 50%). Astana (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Zhomart D. (G) 15. Serikbay A. 14. Amaral A. 30. Morgado B. 19. Taykenov M. 5. Strumia L. 23. Nabikhanov A. (C) 11. Ndombasi N. 13. Serikbay M. 29. Bekmyrza A. 27. Esimbekov D.	93. Condric J. (G) 2. Bartolec K. 3. Kalaica B. 6. Kasym A. 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 9. Islamkhan B. 15. Beysebekov A. (C) 8. Basic I. 10. Tomasov M. 81. Karimov R. 47. Abrayev M.
Substitutes
49. Andrin Y. (G) 8. Armenov A. 1. Ayazbaev N. (G) 67. Berdibek D. 55. Elemes N. 99. Gustavo Franca 28. Petrovic B. 9. Zulfikarov B.	22. Abdurasulov A. 20. Ahanonu N. 4. Anuarov S. 72. Basmanov S. 57. Kaltanov A. 7. Karaman D. 99. Karpikov D. (G) 74. Seysen M. (G) 77. Shomko D. 91. Token A. 52. Tokenov T. 19. Zhaksylyk N.
Coaches
Shoytymov E.	Babayan G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Kasym A. 🟥,
35', Abrayev M. ↓, Anuarov S. ↑,
39', Karimov R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Nabikhanov A. 🟨,
61', Serikbay M. ↓, Gustavo Franca ↑,
72', Tomasov M. ↓, Basmanov S. ↑,
72', Islamkhan B. ↓, Karaman D. ↑,
75', Serikbay A. ↓, Zulfikarov B. ↑,
84', Basic I. (Penalty Awarded),
89', Bekmyrza A. ↓, Berdibek D. ↑,
90', Ndombasi N. ↓, Petrovic B. ↑,
90+4', Taykenov M. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 0, Anuarov S. (Own goal),
90+10', Zhomart D. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kaspiy won 0.

Kaspiy is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Astana's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Astana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Kaspiy has had a series of away games.

In this match, Astana is a strong favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Kaspiy won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:25. (average 1:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kaspiy won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 1:2.2).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

FC Astana: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42:25	17	48
10	Kaspij Aktau	26	8	5	13	27:36	-9	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Kaspiy Aktau
Kazakh Cup
30.04.26	Ordabasy - Kaspiy Aktau	3:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kaspiy Aktau	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Kairat - Kaspiy Aktau	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Aktobe - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Zhetysu	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FC Astana
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Astana - Atyrau	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Astana	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Astana - Ordabasy	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Kairat - Astana	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
02.07.23	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	1:2
24.06.23	Astana - Kaspiy Aktau	3:1
10.09.22	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	0:3
22.04.22	Astana - Kaspiy Aktau	4:0
Kazakh Cup
22.09.21	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	0:1 ET
21.08.21	Astana - Kaspiy Aktau	3:3
Kazakh Premier League
29.05.21	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	2:2

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