Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 12

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin)

Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Zagłębie Lubin		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.7	1.9	Watch
	3.7	3.6	1.85
	3.77	3.86	1.94
	4.12	3.50	1.87	Watch
	3.88	3.6	1.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.83 ↑ (3.8)	3.65 ↓ (3.95)	1.88 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Lubin
24.5%

Draw
25.7%

Legia Warsaw
49.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

24.4%

50.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.6%

25.2%

51.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	7.1%	78.6%

Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Legia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Hladun D. (G) 3. Yakuba R. 25. Nalepa M. 5. Lawniczak A. (C) 35. Lucic L. 39. Kocaba F. 6. Makowski T. 44. Regula M. 20. Dziewiatowski M. 77. Szmyt K. 55. Rocha L.	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 91. Piatkowski K. 3. Kapuadi S. 19. Vinagre R. 44. Szymanski D. 99. Weisshaupt N. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 22. Elitim J. 82. Urbanski K. 29. Rajovic M.
Substitutes
1. Buric J. (G) 16. Corluka J. 27. Diaz J. 26. Kolan J. 9. Kosidis M. 4. Michalski D. 7. Mroz M. 71. Nowogonski K. 99. Popielec C. 18. Radwanski A. 19. Sypek J. 11. Wozniak A.	8. Augustyniak R. 11. Chodyna K. 14. Colak A. 5. Goncalves C. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 77. Krasniqi E. 31. Mendes-Dudzinski M. (G) 12. Pankov R. 13. Reca A. 30. Stojanovic P. 53. Urbanski W. 20. Zewlakow J.
Coaches
Ojrzynski L.	Iordanescu E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Piatkowski K. (Own goal),
45', Piatkowski K. 🟥,
45+1', 2 - 0, Rocha L. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kapustka B. ↓, Pankov R. ↑,
53', 2 - 1, Szmyt K. (Own goal),
61', Dziewiatowski M. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
61', Regula M. ↓, Corluka J. ↑,
61', Rocha L. ↓, Kosidis M. ↑,
65', Weisshaupt N. ↓, Chodyna K. ↑,
77', Hladun D. ↓, Buric J. ↑,
84', Urbanski K. ↓, Krasniqi E. ↑,
85', Krasniqi E. 🟨,
88', Sypek J. 🟨,
90+6', 3 - 1, Sypek J. ⚽, Lucic L. (A),
90+6', Szymanski D. ↓, Urbanski W. ↑,
90+6', Elitim J. ↓, Goncalves C. ↑,
90+8', Makowski T. ↓, Wozniak A. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 0.

Zagłębie Lubin is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Legia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Zagłębie Lubin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Legia is the team to beat.

There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Grzybek M. (Broken Leg)

There will not play in Legia: Arreiol H. (Muscle Injury) Nsame J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 19:43. (average 1:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Zagłębie Lubin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 7:23. (average 0.8:2.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.10.25	Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Lubin	3:1 ✺
29.09.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Arka Gdynia	4:0 ✺
Polish Cup
25.09.25	Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Motor Lublin	2:2 ✺
12.09.25	Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LWWTW
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
05.10.25	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
24.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
08.12.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	0:3
20.07.24	Legia Warsaw - Zagłębie Lubin	2:0
25.05.24	Legia Warsaw - Zagłębie Lubin	2:1
03.12.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	0:3
04.02.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	1:2
23.07.22	Legia Warsaw - Zagłębie Lubin	2:0
04.02.22	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	1:3

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