Match Info

Russian Cup - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 22 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Gazprom Arena (Saint Petersburg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Zenit		Orenburg

	1	X	2
	1.23	5.96	11.4
	1.28	6.05	12.3	Watch
	1.3	5.3	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.3)	5.77 ↑ (5.3)	10.57 ↑ (8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zenit
74.6%

Draw
16.4%

Orenburg
9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71%

17.4%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76%

16.3%

10.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zenit has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Orenburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zenit than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Zenit - Orenburg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Zenit (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1, 1st Half - Zenit (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Zenit (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Latyshonok E. (G) 23. Adamov A. 28. Alip N. 6. Drkusic V. 21. Erokhin A. 9. Gerson 4. Gorshkov Y. 61. Kondakov D. 17. Mostovoy A. 51. Shilov V. 7. Sobolev A.	99. Sysuev N. (G) 37. Du Queiroz 22. Gorelov P. 7. Gurluk E. 30. Guzina G. 8. Kamilov V. 38. Kasimov A. 88. Koserik N. 25. Oleynik S. 2. Poroykov S. 77. Revazov A.
Substitutes
32. Gondou L. 31. Gustavo Mantuan 59. Kasadzhikov A. 41. Kerzhakov M. (G) 47. Lukinykh E. 33. Nino 20. Pedrinho 93. Shichanin M. (G) 92. Shilenok I. 83. Stolbov K. 43. Terentyev D.	29. Bubanja V. 69. Davydov V. 85. Ignatjev I. 70. Kapustyanskiy D. 95. Khodanovich A. (G) 4. Khotulev D. 63. Minatulaev O. 11. Oganesyan S. 20. Rybchinskiy D. 9. Savelyev M. 16. Thompson J. 3. Vedernikov D.
Coaches
Semak S.	Akhmetzyanov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
6', Revazov A. 🟥,
28', 1 - 0, Gorshkov Y. ⚽,
35', 2 - 0, Gerson ⚽,
45+2', 3 - 0, Shilov V. ⚽, Mostovoy A. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Adamov A. ↓, Terentyev D. ↑,
46', Poroykov S. ↓, Bubanja V. ↑,
46', Sobolev A. ↓, Gondou L. ↑,
55', Kamilov V. 🟨,
62', Koserik N. ↓, Ignatjev I. ↑,
63', Gorelov P. 🟨,
64', 4 - 0, Erokhin A. ⚽, Kondakov D. (A),
65', Alip N. ↓, Gustavo Mantuan ↑,
65', Gerson ↓, Stolbov K. ↑,
68', 5 - 0, Gustavo Mantuan ⚽, Gondou L. (A),
69', Gurluk E. ↓, Davydov V. ↑,
69', Kamilov V. ↓, Kapustyanskiy D. ↑,
77', Gorshkov Y. ↓, Shilenok I. ↑,
79', 6 - 0, Erokhin A. ⚽, Gustavo Mantuan (A),
80', Du Queiroz ↓, Minatulaev O. ↑,

Preview

Zenit is Qualified for Russian Cup (Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zenit won 5.

Zenit has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Orenburg's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Orenburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Zenit has had a series of away games.

In this match, Zenit is the obvious favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Zenit won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 37:13. (average 2.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Zenit won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 23:4. (average 3.3:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zenit St Petersburg
Russian Premier League
19.10.25	Sochi - Zenit	0:3 ✺
04.10.25	Akron Tolyatti - Zenit	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
30.09.25	Rubin Kazan - Zenit	0:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
27.09.25	Zenit - Orenburg	5:2 ✺
21.09.25	Krasnodar - Zenit	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTWWW
- FC Orenburg
Russian Premier League
18.10.25	Krylya Sovetov - Orenburg	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Orenburg - Rostov	0:1 ✺
Russian Cup
30.09.25	Akhmat Grozny - Orenburg	0:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
27.09.25	Zenit - Orenburg	5:2 ✺
21.09.25	Orenburg - Dynamo Moscow	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
27.09.25	Zenit - Orenburg	5:2
Russian Cup
26.08.25	Orenburg - Zenit	3:5
Russian Premier League
23.11.24	Orenburg - Zenit	0:1
05.10.24	Zenit - Orenburg	1:0
21.04.24	Zenit - Orenburg	1:0
30.09.23	Orenburg - Zenit	3:1
20.05.23	Orenburg - Zenit	2:2

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