Match Info

Premier League - Round 18

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Akhmat-Arena (Groznyj)

Referee: Ivanov S. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 4


	Akhmat Grozny		Orenburg

	1	X	2
	2.13	3.59	3.58
	2.05	3.79	3.59	Watch
	2	3.25	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.75)	3.54 ↑ (3.5)	3.52 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Akhmat Grozny
46.2%

Draw
26.8%

Orenburg
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

26.6%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

25.9%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Akhmat Grozny has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Akhmat Grozny's form might have worsened.

Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orenburg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Akhmat Grozny than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Akhmat Grozny, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orenburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Akhmat Grozny - Orenburg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Akhmat Grozny will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Akhmat Grozny will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ulyanov V. (G) 55. Todorovic D. 22. Zare M. 90. Ndong O. 8. Bogosavac M. 11. Silva I. 4. Ibishev T. 20. Samorodov M. 17. Cacintura E. 7. Sadulaev L. (C) 77. Melkadze G.	1. Ovsyannikov B. (G) 18. Moufi F. 44. Chichinadze A. 4. Khotulev D. 3. Vedernikov D. 37. Du Queiroz 33. Kvekveskiri I. (C) 16. Thompson J. 20. Rybchinskiy D. 7. Gurluk E. 30. Guzina G.
Substitutes
37. Gadio P. 32. Gaibov I. 75. Ghandri N. 42. Keliano M. 13. Konate M. 72. Magomedov Y. (G) 9. Mansilla B. 88. Shelia G. (G) 81. Sidorov M. 40. Utsiev R. 71. Yakuev M. 10. Zhemaletdinov R.	19. Alexandre Jesus 57. Bolotov E. 22. Gorelov P. 85. Ignatjev I. 8. Kamilov V. 38. Kasimov A. 95. Khodanovich A. (G) 11. Oganesyan S. 2. Poroykov S. 9. Savelyev M. 26. Tsenov E. 31. Zotov G.
Coaches
Cherchesov S.	Akhmetzyanov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', Guzina G. ↓, Savelyev M. ↑,
63', Samorodov M. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
63', Sadulaev L. ↓, Keliano M. ↑,
64', Khotulev D. 🟨,
68', Zare M. 🟨,
71', 1 - 0, Cacintura E. ⚽, Mansilla B. (A),
76', Moufi F. ↓, Poroykov S. ↑,
76', Chichinadze A. ↓, Kasimov A. ↑,
76', Kvekveskiri I. ↓, Bolotov E. ↑,
83', Rybchinskiy D. ↓, Ignatjev I. ↑,
83', Ndong O. ↓, Ghandri N. ↑,
86', Savelyev M. 🟨,
90+2', Keliano M. ↓, Gadio P. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 14 in the zone Premier League (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Akhmat won 1.

Akhmat is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Orenburg has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Akhmat may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Akhmat is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Akhmat: El Mahraoui A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Akhmat won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:26. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Akhmat won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Akhmat Grozny
Russian Premier League
30.11.25	Akhmat Grozny - Dynamo Moscow	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Rubin Kazan - Akhmat Grozny	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Akhmat Grozny - Spartak Moscow	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Akhmat Grozny	2:0 ✺
27.10.25	Akhmat Grozny - Sochi	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLLLL
- FC Orenburg
Russian Premier League
29.11.25	CSKA Moscow - Orenburg	2:0 ✺
Russian Cup
26.11.25	Krasnodar - Orenburg	4:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
22.11.25	Orenburg - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
05.11.25	Orenburg - Krasnodar	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
30.09.25	Akhmat Grozny - Orenburg	0:1
Russian Premier League
22.08.25	Orenburg - Akhmat Grozny	2:2
Russian Cup
13.08.25	Orenburg - Akhmat Grozny	2:1
Russian Premier League
08.12.24	Akhmat Grozny - Orenburg	1:0
28.07.24	Orenburg - Akhmat Grozny	0:0
Russian Cup
04.04.24	Akhmat Grozny - Orenburg	0:1
Club Friendly
20.02.24	Orenburg - Akhmat Grozny	2:1

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