Match Info

Premier League - Round 8

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Kuchma A. (Kaz)


	Zhenis		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.35
	2.52	2.98	2.78	Watch
	2.56	3.15	2.76
	2.5	3.02	2.81	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.8
	2.65	2.99	2.84	Watch
	2.45	3	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (2.59)	2.99 ↑ (2.88)	2.71 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zhenis
35.8%

Draw
30.5%

Tobol Kostanay
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

32%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

31%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zhenis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zhenis than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Plotnikov M. (G) 8. Khaseyn M. 63. Saravanja I. 13. Tursynbay S. 4. Bystrov M. 7. Kuat I. (C) 88. Martins G. 14. Saulet A. 19. Adilio 9. Lobjanidze E. 10. Imnadze L.	1. Busurmanov S. (G) 21. Zhagorov N. 5. Ndiaye P. 4. Cavnic N. 3. Asrankulov R. 13. Cisse A. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 7. Zhumashev Z. 19. Zhumat D. 30. Guerra L. 18. Milovanovic U.
Substitutes
17. Adilov A. 72. Askarov M. 93. Elder Santana 30. Gorobchenko N. 45. Iyede S. 21. Kamaradinov B. 18. Madelkhan B. 52. Merkel A. 77. Shanshar N. (G) 1. Sotnik I. (G) 23. Ulshin A.	38. Bakitzhanov A. 99. Hebaj R. 88. Kalmyrza M. 11. Marat D. 22. Marochkin A. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 31. Murat E. (G) 6. Myakish M. 33. Pivovarov I. 29. Usenov D. 17. Zuev A.
Coaches
Aliyev A.	Romashchenko M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Cavnic N. ↓, Zuev A. ↑,
27', Imnadze L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lobjanidze E. ↓, Merkel A. ↑,
59', Martins G. 🟨,
61', Asrankulov R. 🟨,
71', Zhumashev Z. 🟨,
76', Zhumat D. ↓, Marat D. ↑,
80', Saulet A. ↓, Askarov M. ↑,
83', Khaseyn M. ↓, Adilov A. ↑,
86', 1 - 0, Adilov A. ⚽,
90', Tagybergen A. ↓, Hebaj R. ↑,
90', Cisse A. ↓, Myakish M. ↑,
90+5', Saravanja I. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zhenis won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Zhenis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Zhenis won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Zhenis won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Tobol	26	10	4	12	33:35	-2	34
8	Zhenis	26	8	8	10	26:32	-6	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Zhenis
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Okzhetpes - Zhenis	2:3 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
25.04.26	Altai Semey - Zhenis	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Zhenis - Aktobe	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Kyzylzhar - Zhenis	4:0 ✺
05.04.26	Zhenis - Okzhetpes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTWLT
- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kaspiy Aktau	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Ulytau - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kairat	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Cup
29.08.25	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	1:1
Kazakh Premier League
29.06.25	Tobol Kostanay - Zhenis	2:2
Kazakh Cup
25.06.25	Tobol Kostanay - Zhenis	2:1
Kazakh Premier League
08.03.25	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	0:0
04.10.24	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	2:1
Kazakh League Cup
25.05.24	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	2:0
Kazakh Premier League
27.04.24	Tobol Kostanay - Zhenis	1:1

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