Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 30

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: MAC³PARK Stadion (Zwolle)

Referee: Dieperink R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3


	Zwolle		Excelsior

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.6	3	Watch
	2.15	3.8	3.1
	2.32	3.35	3.05
	2.34	3.7	3.15
	2.21	3.68	3.05	Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.9
	2.3	3.69	3.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.06)	3.59 ↑ (3.52)	3.05 ↓ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zwolle
42.2%

Draw
26.5%

Excelsior
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

26.4%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

26.2%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zwolle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zwolle than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Zwolle - Excelsior Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Zwolle will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. de Graaff T. (G) 3. Aertssen O. 28. Graves S. 4. Garcia MacNulty A. 2. Floranus S. 30. Thomas R. (C) 8. Buurmeester Z. 9. Namli Y. 25. Oosting T. 18. Velanas O. 10. Kostons K.	1. van Gassel S. (G) 2. Bronkhorst I. 4. Widell C. (C) 3. Meissen R. 14. Schouten L. 12. Zagre A. 30. Sanches Fernandes D. 23. Yegoian I. 20. Hartjes L. 11. de Regt G. 10. Naujoks N.
Substitutes
48. Bakker L. (G) 29. Buitink T. 22. de Rooij K. 34. Fichtinger N. 6. Gooijer T. 20. Reiziger G. 42. Ruward D. 5. Velthuis T. 41. Verduin D. (G)	33. Bergraaf J. 24. Cairo G. 6. Carlen A. 7. Hansson E. 15. Janssen S. 16. Raatsie C. (G) 29. van Duinen M. 9. Wlodarczyk S.
Coaches
Van Der Vegt H.	den Uil R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Oosting T. ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Sanches Fernandes D. ⚽, Widell C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Yegoian I. 🟨,
60', 2 - 1, Velanas O. ⚽, Oosting T. (A),
62', Velanas O. ↓, de Rooij K. ↑,
62', Thomas R. ↓, Gooijer T. ↑,
62', Schouten L. ↓, Hansson E. ↑,
74', Kostons K. ↓, Buitink T. ↑,
79', Meissen R. ↓, Wlodarczyk S. ↑,
79', Yegoian I. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Wlodarczyk S. ⚽, de Regt G. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zwolle won 3.

Zwolle has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Excelsior is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Excelsior may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Zwolle could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Zwolle: Lagsir S. (Muscle Injury) Monteiro J. (Muscle Injury) Schendelaar J. (Thigh Injury) Shoretire S. (Knee Injury) Voute D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Excelsior: Akujobi H. (Knee Injury) Jonathans M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Excelsior: Bergraaf J. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Zwolle won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 37:14. (average 2.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Zwolle won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:4. (average 2.1:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15:9	6	11
16	Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6:20	-14	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PEC Zwolle
Dutch Eredivisie
05.04.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Zwolle	5:0 ✺
21.03.26	Zwolle - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Zwolle - Groningen	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Zwolle	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Zwolle - Ajax	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWTTT
- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
04.04.26	Excelsior - NEC Nijmegen	0:2 ✺
20.03.26	Heracles Almelo - Excelsior	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Feyenoord - Excelsior	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Excelsior - Heerenveen	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Excelsior - Go Ahead Eagles	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
20.12.25	Excelsior - Zwolle	2:1
06.04.24	Zwolle - Excelsior	2:1
22.10.23	Excelsior - Zwolle	2:4
Dutch KNVB Beker
15.12.20	Excelsior - Zwolle	2:0
Dutch Eredivisie
17.03.19	Excelsior - Zwolle	0:2
06.10.18	Zwolle - Excelsior	2:0
Club Friendly
14.07.18	Zwolle - Excelsior	5:0

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