Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday


	Adam Walton		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
			Watch
	2.2	1.65	Watch
	2.25	1.71
	2.17	1.66	Watch
	2.2	1.67
	2.22	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.09)	1.67 ↓ (1.69)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adam Walton
43.1%

Sebastian Baez
56.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

55.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

59%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adam Walton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adam Walton than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.4%	0%	92.6%

Adam Walton - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: Sebastian Baez will win (24 of 26 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.07% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sebastian Baez will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Walton is ranked ATP: 85. Baez is ranked ATP: 52.

Walton is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Baez has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Walton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adam Walton
ATP Miami
17.03.26	Adam Walton - Rinky Hijikata	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Adam Walton - Chris Rodesch	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.03.26	Adam Walton - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
13.03.26	Miomir Kecmanovic - Adam Walton	1:2 ✺
12.03.26	Andres Andrade - Adam Walton	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWLWW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Indian Wells
09.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Sebastian Baez - Jiri Lehecka	2:0 ✺
05.03.26	Chun Hsin Tseng - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
28.02.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWLW

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