Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 March 2026, Monday


	Alejandro Tabilo		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.3	1.6	Watch
	2.4	1.58	Watch
	2.45	1.63
	2.4	1.57	Watch
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.4	1.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.62)	1.59 ↑ (1.49)

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Tabilo
40%

Alex Michelsen
60%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

63.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

62.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Tabilo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Tabilo than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Alejandro Tabilo - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Tabilo will win (votes: 12 - 40%). Michelsen will win (votes: 18 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Michelsen: 42.5% – 77.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tabilo (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Michelsen (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tabilo is ranked ATP: 41. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 40.

Recent performances by Tabilo have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Michelsen is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tabilo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Michelsen might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Michelsen will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Alex Michelsen - the odds 1.49 are the expected chance of winning is 63.7%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
19.03.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Tabilo	2:0 ✺
05.03.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
ATP Santiago
27.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWLWL
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Alex Michelsen - Cameron Norrie	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Alex Michelsen - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
11.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Alex Michelsen - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Ugo Humbert - Alex Michelsen	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WWLWW

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