Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday


	Alex Michelsen		Mattia Bellucci

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.35	3.15	Watch
	1.43	3.02
	1.39	2.92	Watch
	1.44	2.75
	1.36	3.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.52)	3.04 ↑ (2.42)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Michelsen
68.6%

Mattia Bellucci
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.6%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Michelsen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex Michelsen's performance.

Mattia Bellucci has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mattia Bellucci might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mattia Bellucci than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Alex Michelsen - Mattia Bellucci Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Michelsen (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Alex Michelsen will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Michelsen is ranked ATP: 40. Bellucci is ranked ATP: 77.

Michelsen has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bellucci is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Bellucci may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Michelsen is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Michelsen won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Alex Michelsen - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 61.42%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP Indian Wells
11.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Alex Michelsen - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Ugo Humbert - Alex Michelsen	1:2 ✺
05.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
18.02.26	Alex Michelsen - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWWWL
- Mattia Bellucci
ATP Miami
17.03.26	Mattia Bellucci - Murphy Cassone	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Mattia Bellucci - Nicolas Jarry	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.03.26	Mattia Bellucci - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Adam Walton - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
13.03.26	Mattia Bellucci - Raphael Collignon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Washington
31.07.24	Alex Michelsen - Mattia Bellucci	2:0

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