Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Shanghai 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Matteo Berrettini		Brandon Nakashima

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.35	1.57
	2.28	1.63
	2.37	1.59	Watch
	2.35	1.61
	2.53	1.54	Watch
	2.35	1.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.4)	1.59 ↑ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 24.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Berrettini
40.1%

Brandon Nakashima
59.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.9%

61.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Berrettini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Brandon Nakashima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	0%	38.5%

Matteo Berrettini - Brandon Nakashima Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Berrettini will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Nakashima will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Berrettini: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Berrettini is ranked ATP: 46., and Nakashima is ranked ATP: 18..

Both players have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Nakashima could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Nakashima is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Berrettini has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1.5:1.5 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Brandon Nakashima - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 61.07%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Shanghai
07.10.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Matteo Berrettini	1:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
03.10.26	Matteo Berrettini - Daniel Vallejo	0:2 ✺
01.10.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Berrettini	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Matteo Berrettini - Mariano Navone	1:3 ✺
31.08.26	Matteo Berrettini - Stanislas Wawrinka	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWLW
- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Tokyo
30.09.26	Brandon Nakashima - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
25.09.26	Jakub Mensik - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Brandon Nakashima - Alex Michelsen	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Sebastian Baez	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
22.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Australian Open
16.01.22	Brandon Nakashima - Matteo Berrettini	1:3

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