Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Estoril, clay - Final

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4


	Andrea Pellegrino		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	3	1.34	Watch
	2.5	1.47	Watch
	2.67	1.51
	2.54	1.52	Watch
			Watch
	2.51	1.49	Watch
	2.5	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (3)	1.46 ↑ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrea Pellegrino
35.8%

Alex Michelsen
64.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

68.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

68.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrea Pellegrino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrea Pellegrino than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	0%	92.3%

Andrea Pellegrino - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Pellegrino (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Michelsen (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Users Predictions: Alex Michelsen will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Pellegrino is ranked ATP: 237. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 38.

Pellegrino has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Michelsen has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Pellegrino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrea Pellegrino
ATP Challenger
03.05.25	Andrea Pellegrino - Aleksandar Vukic	2:0 ✺
02.05.25	Andrea Pellegrino - Nicolas Jarry	2:1 ✺
01.05.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Andrea Pellegrino	0:2 ✺
30.04.25	Dusan Lajovic - Andrea Pellegrino	1:2 ✺
29.04.25	Andrea Pellegrino - Bernabe Zapata Miralles	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.4 WWWWW
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Challenger
03.05.25	Miomir Kecmanovic - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
02.05.25	Luca Nardi - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
01.05.25	Giovanni Fonio - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
23.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
ATP Houston
04.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWLL

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