Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday


	Andrea Pellegrino		Martin Damm

	1	2
			Watch
	1.83	1.88	Watch
	1.94	1.95
	1.94	1.82	Watch
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.89	1.91	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.58)	1.88 ↓ (2.29)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrea Pellegrino
49.9%

Martin Damm
50.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.1%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrea Pellegrino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Andrea Pellegrino's form might have worsened.

Martin Damm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Martin Damm's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrea Pellegrino than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Andrea Pellegrino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Martin Damm than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Martin Damm, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Andrea Pellegrino - Martin Damm Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Pellegrino will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Damm will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Pellegrino is ranked ATP: 131. Damm is ranked ATP: 124.

Recent performances by Pellegrino have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Damm is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Pellegrino is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrea Pellegrino
ATP Munich
11.04.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Andrea Pellegrino	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Andrea Pellegrino	Pellegrino A. Retired ✺
ATP Marrakech
29.03.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Timofey Skatov	Pellegrino A. Retired ✺
ATP Challenger
25.03.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Vitaliy Sachko	1:2 ✺
23.03.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Filip Cristian Jianu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 ???LW
- Martin Damm
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Alex Rybakov - Martin Damm	2:1 ✺
ATP Houston
31.03.26	Martin Damm - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Martin Damm - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
19.03.26	Martin Damm - Jacob Fearnley	Fearnley J. retired ✺
ATP Challenger
09.03.26	Martin Damm - Nicolas Mejia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0.9 LLL?L

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