Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montpellier, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Arthur Gea		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
			Watch
	2.75	1.43	Watch
	2.96	1.44
	2.83	1.41	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	2.79	1.44	Watch
	2.6	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (2.86)	1.43 ↑ (1.37)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Gea
33.8%

Tomas Machac
66.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

67.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

62.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Gea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Arthur Gea - Tomas Machac Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Machac (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tomas Machac will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Gea (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Machac (votes: 7 - 77.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gea is ranked ATP: 168. Machac is ranked ATP: 28.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Gea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Machac is the team to beat.

We predict that Machac will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Gea
ATP Montpellier
02.02.26	Arthur Gea - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	Mpetshi Perricard G. retired ✺
ATP Australian Open
22.01.26	Arthur Gea - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:3 ✺
19.01.26	Jiri Lehecka - Arthur Gea	0:3 ✺
14.01.26	Arthur Gea - Daniel Vallejo	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 ?LWWW
- Tomas Machac
ATP Australian Open
23.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Tomas Machac	3:2 ✺
22.01.26	Tomas Machac - Stefanos Tsitsipas	3:1 ✺
20.01.26	Grigor Dimitrov - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
ATP Adelaide
16.01.26	Ugo Humbert - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
15.01.26	Tomas Machac - Tommy Paul	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LWWWW

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