Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Brandon Nakashima		Nikoloz Basilashvili

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.65	2.2	Watch
	1.66	2.41
	1.64	2.25	Watch
	1.62	2.3
	1.69	2.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.56)	2.28 ↓ (2.46)

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brandon Nakashima
58%

Nikoloz Basilashvili
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.2%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.1%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brandon Nakashima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Nikoloz Basilashvili has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nikoloz Basilashvili than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.5%	0%	56.5%

Brandon Nakashima - Nikoloz Basilashvili Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Nakashima will win (votes: 10 - 43.5%). Basilashvili will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Basilashvili: 36.2% – 76.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Basilashvili (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 Games - Nakashima (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nikoloz Basilashvili will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Nakashima (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Basilashvili (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Nakashima is ranked ATP: 32. Basilashvili is ranked ATP: 117.

In recent matches, Nakashima has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Basilashvili is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Nakashima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Nakashima will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nakashima won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Brandon Nakashima - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 61.22%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Nikoloz Basilashvili - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.78%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Roma
09.05.26	Brandon Nakashima - Roberto Bautista-Agut	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Brandon Nakashima - Alexander Blockx	1:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
16.04.26	Arthur Fils - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Brandon Nakashima - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
13.04.26	Brandon Nakashima - Arthur Fils	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLW?
- Nikoloz Basilashvili
ATP Roma
09.05.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Ben Shelton	2:1 ✺
07.05.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
05.05.26	Rinky Hijikata - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
04.05.26	Elmer Moller - Nikoloz Basilashvili	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.04.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Sandro Kopp	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
16.05.25	Brandon Nakashima - Nikoloz Basilashvili	1:2

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