Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday


	Elmer Moller		Nikoloz Basilashvili

	1	2
			Watch
	1.62	2.17	Watch
	1.7	2.22
	1.62	2.23	Watch
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.64	2.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.69)	2.17 ↑ (2.06)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elmer Moller
56.8%

Nikoloz Basilashvili
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elmer Moller has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Nikoloz Basilashvili has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elmer Moller than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nikoloz Basilashvili than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Elmer Moller - Nikoloz Basilashvili Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Moller will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Basilashvili will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Basilashvili (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Moller is ranked ATP: 169. Basilashvili is ranked ATP: 120.

Moller is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Basilashvili's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Basilashvili may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Nikoloz Basilashvili - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 45.07%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elmer Moller
ATP Madrid
26.04.26	Jannik Sinner - Elmer Moller	2:0 ✺
24.04.26	Elmer Moller - Gabriel Diallo	Diallo G. Retired ✺
22.04.26	Elmer Moller - Federico Cina	2:0 ✺
21.04.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Elmer Moller	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Elmer Moller - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 L?WWW
- Nikoloz Basilashvili
ATP Challenger
28.04.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Sandro Kopp	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Sebastian Ofner	0:2 ✺
21.04.26	Patrick Kypson - Nikoloz Basilashvili	1:2 ✺
20.04.26	Stefano Travaglia - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Ethan Quinn - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLWWL

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