Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami (USA), hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 21 March 2025, Friday


	Brandon Nakashima		Roberto Carballes Baena

	1	2
	1.33	3.4	Watch
	1.3	3.4	Watch
	1.34	3.3	Watch
	1.33	3.29	Watch
	1.33	3.3	Watch
	1.35	3.24	Watch
	1.34	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.38)	3.32 ↑ (3.08)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brandon Nakashima
71.4%

Roberto Carballes Baena
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.1%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.9%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Roberto Carballes Baena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Brandon Nakashima - Roberto Carballes Baena Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Nakashima will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Carballes Baena will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nakashima: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Nakashima is ranked ATP: 32. Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 53.

Recent matches Nakashima is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Carballes Baena is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Nakashima could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Nakashima is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Nakashima won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.25	Brandon Nakashima - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
10.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
08.03.25	Rinky Hijikata - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
28.02.25	Tomas Machac - Brandon Nakashima	2:1 ✺
27.02.25	Brandon Nakashima - David Goffin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWLW
- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Miami
19.03.25	Christopher OConnell - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
05.03.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Christopher OConnell	1:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
25.02.25	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
18.02.25	Mariano Navone - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
10.02.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Dusan Lajovic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLL

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