Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Cameron Norrie		Thiago Augustin Tirante

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.69	2.19
	1.78	2.19
	1.6	2.33	Watch
	1.65	2
	1.72	2.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.75)	2.19 ↑ (2.05)

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cameron Norrie
56.5%

Thiago Augustin Tirante
43.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

46.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

49.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cameron Norrie has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Thiago Augustin Tirante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cameron Norrie than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cameron Norrie that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thiago Augustin Tirante than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Thiago Augustin Tirante could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.8%	0%	54.2%

Cameron Norrie - Thiago Augustin Tirante Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Norrie will win (votes: 9 - 40.9%). Tirante will win (votes: 13 - 59.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tirante: 38.6% – 79.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Norrie is ranked ATP: 23. Tirante is ranked ATP: 75.

Norrie has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tirante is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Norrie may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cameron Norrie
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
15.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Ethan Quinn	2:1 ✺
13.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWWL
- Thiago Augustin Tirante
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
22.04.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Thiago Augustin Tirante	0:2 ✺
ATP Houston
04.04.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Ben Shelton - Thiago Augustin Tirante	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WWWWW

Cameron Norrie - Thiago Augustin Tirante: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide