Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Thiago Augustin Tirante		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
			Watch
	2.9	1.42
	2.9	1.45
	2.83	1.42	Watch
	2.9	1.4
	2.96	1.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↓ (3.15)	1.42 ↑ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thiago Augustin Tirante
32.8%

Tommy Paul
67.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

70%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.1%

73.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thiago Augustin Tirante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thiago Augustin Tirante than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Thiago Augustin Tirante that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tommy Paul could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Thiago Augustin Tirante - Tommy Paul Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Tirante will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Paul will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tirante: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tirante (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tirante is ranked ATP: 75. Paul is ranked ATP: 18.

Tirante is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Paul is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Paul may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Paul is considered a favorite.

We predict that Paul will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tirante won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thiago Augustin Tirante
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Thiago Augustin Tirante	0:2 ✺
ATP Houston
04.04.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Ben Shelton - Thiago Augustin Tirante	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Colton Smith - Thiago Augustin Tirante	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWWWW
- Tommy Paul
ATP Houston
05.04.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Tommy Paul - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
03.04.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
01.04.26	Daniel Vallejo - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
25.03.26	Tommy Paul - Arthur Fils	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 W?WWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Australian Open
20.01.26	Tommy Paul - Thiago Augustin Tirante	3:0

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