Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Cameron Norrie		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.16	1.7
	2.27	1.74
	2.02	1.79	Watch
	2.1	1.73
	2.21	1.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.33)	1.73 ↑ (1.59)

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cameron Norrie
44.4%

Tomas Machac
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

59.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

63.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cameron Norrie has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cameron Norrie than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cameron Norrie that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tomas Machac could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Cameron Norrie - Tomas Machac Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Machac (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Tomas Machac will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Norrie is ranked ATP: 23. Machac is ranked ATP: 41.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Machac may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Norrie won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Cameron Norrie - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 40.56%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cameron Norrie
ATP Barcelona
17.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
15.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Ethan Quinn	2:1 ✺
13.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Miomir Kecmanovic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWWLW
- Tomas Machac
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Tomas Machac - Francisco Comesana	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.26	Tomas Machac - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
16.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tomas Machac	Machac T. Walkover ✺
14.04.26	Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.26	Tomas Machac - Jannik Sinner	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WL?WL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Geneva
21.05.25	Cameron Norrie - Tomas Machac	Machac T. retired
ATP Wimbledon
04.07.23	Cameron Norrie - Tomas Machac	3:1

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