Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Barcelona, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday


	Tomas Machac		Andrey Rublev

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
			Watch
	2.24	1.63	Watch
	2.24	1.77
	2.26	1.67	Watch
	2.2	1.67
	2.26	1.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.53)	1.67 ↑ (1.51)

The best margin for this event is 1.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tomas Machac
42.6%

Andrey Rublev
57.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

62.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tomas Machac has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tomas Machac's performance.

Andrey Rublev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Andrey Rublev might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.6%	0%	52.4%

Tomas Machac - Andrey Rublev Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Machac will win (votes: 9 - 45%). Rublev will win (votes: 11 - 55%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rublev: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Machac (votes: 2 - 50%). Rublev (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Played indoor on hard. Played with special rules.

Machac is ranked ATP: 47. Rublev is ranked ATP: 15.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Rublev is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Machac won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomas Machac
ATP Barcelona
16.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tomas Machac	Machac T. Walkover ✺
14.04.26	Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.26	Tomas Machac - Jannik Sinner	1:2 ✺
08.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Tomas Machac	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Daniel Altmaier - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 ?WLWW
- Andrey Rublev
ATP Barcelona
16.04.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
14.04.26	Mariano Navone - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Andrey Rublev - Zizou Bergs	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Andrey Rublev - Nuno Borges	2:1 ✺
Exhibition UTS Championship Men
04.04.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
05.12.25	Andrey Rublev - Tomas Machac	3:0
ATP Miami
22.03.24	Andrey Rublev - Tomas Machac	0:2

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