Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Lorenzo Musetti		Casper Ruud

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.6	1.5
	2.66	1.56
	2.64	1.48	Watch
	2.6	1.5	Watch
	2.61	1.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.24)	1.51 ↓ (1.66)

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
36.5%

Casper Ruud
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

57.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

54.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorenzo Musetti's form might have worsened.

Casper Ruud has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Casper Ruud's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Musetti, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Casper Ruud, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	0%	63.6%

Lorenzo Musetti - Casper Ruud Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Musetti will win (votes: 7 - 35%). Ruud will win (votes: 13 - 65%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ruud: 44.1% – 85.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Ruud (1.78) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruud (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 10. Ruud is ranked ATP: 25.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Ruud may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ruud will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Ruud will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Musetti won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Musetti - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.56%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Casper Ruud - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 57.44%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Roma
10.05.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
08.05.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Jiri Lehecka - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLWW
- Casper Ruud
ATP Roma
10.05.26	Casper Ruud - Jiri Lehecka	2:0 ✺
08.05.26	Casper Ruud - Zachary Svajda	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
30.04.26	Casper Ruud - Alexander Blockx	0:2 ✺
28.04.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Casper Ruud	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Bastad
22.07.23	Casper Ruud - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0
ATP Paris
03.11.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Casper Ruud	2:1
ATP Roma
11.05.19	Lorenzo Musetti - Casper Ruud	0:2

Upcoming Matches