Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Mauthausen, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday


	Joel Schwaerzler		Jan Choinski

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.6	2.15
	1.72	2.26
	1.6	2.2	Watch
	1.67	2.1
	1.63	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.57)	2.19 ↓ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joel Schwaerzler
57.2%

Jan Choinski
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joel Schwaerzler has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Jan Choinski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Joel Schwaerzler - Jan Choinski Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Schwaerzler will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Choinski will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 172. Choinski is ranked ATP: 119.

Schwaerzler has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Choinski has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Schwaerzler may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Schwaerzler will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Schwaerzler won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Jan Choinski - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.21%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger
17.04.26	Valentin Royer - Joel Schwaerzler	2:1 ✺
15.04.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Chun Hsin Tseng	2:0 ✺
13.04.26	Gastao Elias - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
10.04.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
09.04.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Roman Safiullin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWLW
- Jan Choinski
ATP Madrid
20.04.26	Henrique Rocha - Jan Choinski	2:1 ✺
ATP Munich
11.04.26	Jan Choinski - Marc-Andrea Huesler	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Jan Choinski - Alexandre Muller	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
26.03.26	Jan Choinski - Roman Safiullin	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Jan Choinski - Tiago Pereira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
03.09.25	Jan Choinski - Joel Schwaerzler	0:2
10.10.24	Jan Choinski - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0

Joel Schwaerzler - Jan Choinski: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide