Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday


	Christian Garin		Martin Damm

	1	2
			Watch
	1.4	2.7	Watch
	1.4	3.19
	1.35	3.1	Watch
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.43	2.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.51)	2.91 ↑ (2.46)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christian Garin
67.6%

Martin Damm
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Christian Garin's performance.

Martin Damm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Martin Damm might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Christian Garin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Martin Damm than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Martin Damm could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Christian Garin - Martin Damm Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Garin will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Damm will win (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Garin: 19% – 81%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Garin is ranked ATP: 85. Damm is ranked ATP: 126.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Garin is a strong favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Christian Garin - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 61.96%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christian Garin
ATP Madrid
20.04.26	Christian Garin - Nicolas Jarry	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Christian Garin - Alexander Zverev	1:2 ✺
06.04.26	Christian Garin - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Christian Garin	Canceled ✺
04.04.26	Christian Garin - Jesper De Jong	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 ?LW?W
- Martin Damm
ATP Madrid
20.04.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Alex Rybakov - Martin Damm	2:1 ✺
ATP Houston
31.03.26	Martin Damm - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Martin Damm - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
19.03.26	Martin Damm - Jacob Fearnley	Fearnley J. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLLL?

Christian Garin - Martin Damm: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide