Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday


	Christian Garin		Liam Draxl

	1	2
			Watch
	1.78	1.93
	1.81	2.05
	1.77	2.00	Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.75	1.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.67)	1.98 ↓ (2.02)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christian Garin
52.9%

Liam Draxl
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.7%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.2%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christian Garin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Liam Draxl has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liam Draxl than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.6%	0%	52.4%

Christian Garin - Liam Draxl Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Garin will win (votes: 10 - 50%). Draxl will win (votes: 10 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Garin: 28.1% – 71.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Garin (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Draxl (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Garin is ranked ATP: 90. Draxl is ranked ATP: 147.

Garin has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Draxl's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Draxl may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christian Garin
ATP Challenger
11.03.26	Christian Garin - Dalibor Svrcina	0:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
26.02.26	Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
16.02.26	Christian Garin - Thiago Augustin Tirante	0:2 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
09.02.26	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Christian Garin	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLWL?
- Liam Draxl
ATP Challenger
09.03.26	Rei Sakamoto - Liam Draxl	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
02.03.26	Ignacio Buse - Liam Draxl	2:0 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
14.02.26	Zachary Svajda - Liam Draxl	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Liam Draxl - Gustavo Heide	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	Liam Draxl - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWW

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