Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Montevideo, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Christian Garin		Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
			Watch
	1.55	2.25	Watch
	1.62	2.38
	1.57	2.25	Watch
			Watch
	1.54	2.32	Watch
	1.7	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.7)	2.24 ↑ (1.96)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christian Garin
58.4%

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Christian Garin - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Garin will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Barrios Vera will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Garin (votes: 1 - 50%). Barrios Vera (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Garin is ranked ATP: 105. Barrios Vera is ranked ATP: 111.

Garin is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Barrios Vera is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Garin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Garin won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Christian Garin - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 53.55%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - the odds 1.96 are the expected chance of winning is 46.45%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christian Garin
ATP Challenger
14.11.25	Daniel Vallejo - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
13.11.25	Alex Barrena - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
11.11.25	Andrea Collarini - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
07.11.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Christian Garin	2:1 ✺
06.11.25	Ivan Gakhov - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWLW
- Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera
ATP Challenger
14.11.25	Carlos Taberner - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	1:2 ✺
13.11.25	Franco Roncadelli - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	0:2 ✺
11.11.25	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	0:2 ✺
09.11.25	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Alvaro Guillen Meza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
04.05.25	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Christian Garin	1:2
ATP Rio de Janeiro
15.02.25	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Christian Garin	2:0
ATP Wimbledon
26.06.24	Christian Garin - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	2:1
ATP Santiago
27.02.24	Christian Garin - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	0:2

Christian Garin - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide