Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Almaty, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Almaty 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	00:00	beIN Sports 1
Denmark	15:00	TV2 Play
Finland	16:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Sweden	15:00	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
United Kingdom	14:00	Sky Sports Tennis


	Daniil Medvedev		Alexander Bublik

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.50	2.55
	1.45	2.6
	1.5	2.68	Watch
	1.51	2.65
	1.5	2.66	Watch
	1.45	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.4)	2.64 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
64.1%

Alexander Bublik
35.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.8%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.1%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniil Medvedev, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alexander Bublik, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Daniil Medvedev - Alexander Bublik Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Daniil Medvedev will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 5., and Bublik is ranked ATP: 19..

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 4.

Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.

Medvedev may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Medvedev holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Medvedev has recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 15:3 (averaging 1.9:0.4 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Daniil Medvedev - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 67.82%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Almaty
23.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Terence Atmane	2:0 ✺
22.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
17.10.26	Rafael Jodar - Daniil Medvedev	2:0 ✺
16.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Tommy Paul	2:1 ✺
14.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLWW
- Alexander Bublik
ATP Almaty
23.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Karen Khachanov	2:1 ✺
22.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Fabian Marozsan	Bublik A. Walkover ✺
ATP Shanghai
13.10.26	Alexander Zverev - Alexander Bublik	2:1 ✺
11.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Brandon Nakashima	2:1 ✺
09.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Tomas Machac	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 W?LWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Halle
22.06.25	Alexander Bublik - Daniil Medvedev	2:0
ATP Madrid
30.04.24	Daniil Medvedev - Alexander Bublik	2:0
ATP Dubai
01.03.23	Daniil Medvedev - Alexander Bublik	2:0
ATP Toronto
10.08.21	Daniil Medvedev - Alexander Bublik	2:1
ATP Olympic Games
23.07.21	Alexander Bublik - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP Roland Garros
31.05.21	Alexander Bublik - Daniil Medvedev	0:3
ATP St Petersburg
20.09.16	Daniil Medvedev - Alexander Bublik	2:0

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