Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Daniil Medvedev		Flavio Cobolli

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.81	2.01
	1.86	2.08
	1.75	2.13	Watch
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.84	2.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.94)	2.05 ↑ (1.94)

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
53%

Flavio Cobolli
47%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

45.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Flavio Cobolli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flavio Cobolli than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Daniil Medvedev - Flavio Cobolli Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Medvedev will win (votes: 24 - 75%). Cobolli will win (votes: 8 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Medvedev: 60% – 90%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 10. Cobolli is ranked ATP: 13.

In recent matches, Medvedev has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cobolli is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Cobolli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Madrid
27.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Fabian Marozsan	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Rei Sakamoto - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWLLW
- Flavio Cobolli
ATP Madrid
27.04.26	Daniel Vallejo - Flavio Cobolli	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
ATP Munich
19.04.26	Flavio Cobolli - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Alexander Zverev - Flavio Cobolli	0:2 ✺
17.04.26	Flavio Cobolli - Vit Kopriva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Beijing
30.09.24	Flavio Cobolli - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP US Open
31.08.24	Flavio Cobolli - Daniil Medvedev	0:3

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