Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Daniil Medvedev		Fabian Marozsan

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.63	2.3
	1.66	2.43
	1.61	2.33	Watch
	1.62	2.3
	1.69	2.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.42)	2.31 ↓ (2.83)

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
58.5%

Fabian Marozsan
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniil Medvedev's form might have worsened.

Fabian Marozsan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fabian Marozsan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniil Medvedev, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fabian Marozsan than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fabian Marozsan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85%	0%	15%

Daniil Medvedev - Fabian Marozsan Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Games - Marozsan (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Daniil Medvedev will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniil Medvedev will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 3 - 75%). Marozsan (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 10. Marozsan is ranked ATP: 50.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Marozsan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Medvedev is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Rei Sakamoto - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
15.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLWLW
- Fabian Marozsan
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Fabian Marozsan - Ethan Quinn	2:0 ✺
ATP Munich
16.04.26	Denis Shapovalov - Fabian Marozsan	2:0 ✺
15.04.26	Fabian Marozsan - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Fabian Marozsan - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Damir Dzumhur - Fabian Marozsan	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Australian Open
22.01.26	Daniil Medvedev - Fabian Marozsan	3:2
ATP Almaty
17.10.25	Fabian Marozsan - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP US Open
29.08.24	Fabian Marozsan - Daniil Medvedev	0:3

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