Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Paris, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday


	Denis Shapovalov		Joao Fonseca

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
			Watch
	2.32	1.62	Watch
	2.19	1.63	Watch
	2.4	1.6	Watch
	2.22	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.19)	1.61 ↓ (1.63)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Denis Shapovalov
41.4%

Joao Fonseca
58.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

57.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

59.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	0%	64.3%

Denis Shapovalov - Joao Fonseca Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Shapovalov will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Fonseca will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fonseca: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Fonseca (votes: 9 - 69.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 23. Fonseca is ranked ATP: 46.

Shapovalov has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fonseca is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Fonseca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Fonseca will win today's game, with odds of 1.77.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shapovalov won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Basel
24.10.25	Joao Fonseca - Denis Shapovalov	Shapovalov D. retired ✺
23.10.25	Valentin Royer - Denis Shapovalov	0:2 ✺
21.10.25	Marcos Giron - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
21.10.25	Sebastian Baez - Denis Shapovalov	Canceled ✺
ATP Stockholm
18.10.25	Denis Shapovalov - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 ?WW?L
- Joao Fonseca
ATP Basel
26.10.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Joao Fonseca - Jaume Munar	2:0 ✺
24.10.25	Joao Fonseca - Denis Shapovalov	Shapovalov D. retired ✺
22.10.25	Jakub Mensik - Joao Fonseca	Fonseca J. walkover ✺
21.10.25	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WW??W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Basel
24.10.25	Joao Fonseca - Denis Shapovalov	Shapovalov D. retired

Denis Shapovalov - Joao Fonseca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide