Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Alexander Shevchenko

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.1	1.72	Watch
	2.05	1.78	Watch
	2.17	1.76
	2.12	1.69	Watch
	2	1.8
	2.15	1.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.29)	1.75 ↑ (1.58)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
45.5%

Alexander Shevchenko
54.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

59.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Alexander Shevchenko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	0%	23.5%

Matteo Arnaldi - Alexander Shevchenko Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Shevchenko will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Matteo Arnaldi will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 101. Shevchenko is ranked ATP: 84.

Shevchenko is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Shevchenko may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Arnaldi won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Alexander Shevchenko - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 59.17%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Indian Wells
05.03.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Andrey Rublev	0:3 ✺
ATP Brisbane
04.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Daniel Altmaier	Canceled ✺
03.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Rinky Hijikata	Hijikata R. walkover ✺
03.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LL??W
- Alexander Shevchenko
ATP Challenger
11.03.26	Ethan Quinn - Alexander Shevchenko	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
05.03.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Sho Shimabukuro	2:1 ✺
ATP Dubai
24.02.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Karen Khachanov	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Quentin Halys - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
02.01.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0
11.10.22	Alexander Shevchenko - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2

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