Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday


	Elmer Moller		Hugo Gaston

	1	2
			Watch
	2.8	1.37	Watch
	2.61	1.53
	2.55	1.49	Watch
	2.63	1.44
	2.68	1.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (2.77)	1.46 ↑ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elmer Moller
35.5%

Hugo Gaston
64.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

66.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

63.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elmer Moller has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elmer Moller than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Elmer Moller - Hugo Gaston Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Moller will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Gaston will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Moller is ranked ATP: 129. Gaston is ranked ATP: 116.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Moller may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gaston will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elmer Moller
ATP Challenger
14.04.26	Elmer Moller - Nicolas Jarry	1:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
01.04.26	Elmer Moller - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Gabi Adrian Boitan - Elmer Moller	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.03.26	Elmer Moller - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	Canceled ✺
17.03.26	Elmer Moller - Kimmer Coppejans	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLW?L
- Hugo Gaston
ATP Challenger
10.04.26	Martin Landaluce - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
09.04.26	Timofey Skatov - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Gianluca Cadenasso - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
ATP Marrakech
31.03.26	Luca Van Assche - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.03.26	Hugo Gaston - Sebastian Ofner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWWLL

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