Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Elmer Moller		Gabriel Diallo

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.2	1.65	Watch
	2.2	1.65
	2.25	1.72
	2.27	1.63	Watch
	2.2	1.67
	2.22	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.06)	1.67 ↓ (1.75)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elmer Moller
42.9%

Gabriel Diallo
57.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elmer Moller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Gabriel Diallo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elmer Moller than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Elmer Moller, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gabriel Diallo than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gabriel Diallo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Elmer Moller - Gabriel Diallo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Diallo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Gabriel Diallo will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Moller is ranked ATP: 169. Diallo is ranked ATP: 36.

Recent performances by Moller have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Diallo has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Moller may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Diallo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elmer Moller
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Elmer Moller - Federico Cina	2:0 ✺
21.04.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Elmer Moller	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Elmer Moller - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.04.26	Elmer Moller - Nicolas Jarry	1:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
01.04.26	Elmer Moller - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWWLL
- Gabriel Diallo
ATP Munich
16.04.26	Alexander Zverev - Gabriel Diallo	2:0 ✺
13.04.26	Gabriel Diallo - Vitaliy Sachko	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Joao Fonseca - Gabriel Diallo	2:0 ✺
ATP Bucharest
01.04.26	Gabriel Diallo - Alex Molcan	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Gabriel Diallo - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 L?LLL

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