Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Francis Tiafoe		Andrea Pellegrino

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.4	2.9	Watch
	1.49	2.82
	1.38	3.04	Watch
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.4	3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.5)	2.92 ↑ (2.6)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
67.3%

Andrea Pellegrino
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.4%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Andrea Pellegrino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francis Tiafoe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrea Pellegrino than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Andrea Pellegrino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	0%	11.8%

Francis Tiafoe - Andrea Pellegrino Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Tiafoe (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -3 Games - Tiafoe (1.79) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +3.5 Games - Pellegrino (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Francis Tiafoe will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.93% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 4 - 80%). Pellegrino (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 22. Pellegrino is ranked ATP: 155.

Recent performances by Tiafoe have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Pellegrino is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Pellegrino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Tiafoe is the team to beat.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Francis Tiafoe - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 63.41%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Roma
09.05.26	Francis Tiafoe - Ignacio Buse	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Terence Atmane - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
ATP Houston
04.04.26	Tommy Paul - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
03.04.26	Alexei Popyrin - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Rinky Hijikata - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 W??WW
- Andrea Pellegrino
ATP Roma
09.05.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Arthur Fils	Fils A. Retired ✺
07.05.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Luca Nardi	2:1 ✺
05.05.26	Martin Landaluce - Andrea Pellegrino	1:2 ✺
04.05.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Andrea Pellegrino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 ?WWWL

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