Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Francis Tiafoe		Ignacio Buse

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.3	1.6	Watch
	2.32	1.61	Watch
	2.31	1.69
	2.11	1.73	Watch
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.32	1.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.15)	1.64 ↓ (1.7)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
41.7%

Ignacio Buse
58.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

55.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Ignacio Buse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Francis Tiafoe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ignacio Buse than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ignacio Buse, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Francis Tiafoe - Ignacio Buse Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Tiafoe will win (votes: 9 - 45%). Buse will win (votes: 11 - 55%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Buse: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Buse (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 22. Buse is ranked ATP: 62.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Buse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Ignacio Buse - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 55.86%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Terence Atmane - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
ATP Houston
04.04.26	Tommy Paul - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
03.04.26	Alexei Popyrin - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Rinky Hijikata - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
26.03.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 ??WWL
- Ignacio Buse
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Ignacio Buse	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.05.26	Ignacio Buse - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
30.04.26	Ignacio Buse - Thomas Faurel	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Ignacio Buse - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Arthur Fils - Ignacio Buse	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWWL

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