Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday


	Andrea Pellegrino		Hugo Gaston

	1	2
			Watch
	1.95	1.77
	1.98	1.88
	1.93	1.83	Watch
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.98	1.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.12)	1.82 ↑ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrea Pellegrino
48.3%

Hugo Gaston
51.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

56.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

51.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrea Pellegrino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrea Pellegrino than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Andrea Pellegrino - Hugo Gaston Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Pellegrino (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Andrea Pellegrino will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Pellegrino is ranked ATP: 130. Gaston is ranked ATP: 115.

Pellegrino is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gaston has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Pellegrino won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Andrea Pellegrino - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 43.77%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Hugo Gaston - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.23%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrea Pellegrino
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Andrea Pellegrino	2:1 ✺
29.04.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Stefanos Sakellaridis	2:1 ✺
ATP Madrid
20.04.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
11.04.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Andrea Pellegrino	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Andrea Pellegrino	Pellegrino A. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWL??
- Hugo Gaston
ATP Challenger
29.04.26	Hugo Gaston - Darwin Blanch	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Hugo Gaston - Matthias Ujvary	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
20.04.26	Elmer Moller - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.04.26	Martin Landaluce - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
09.04.26	Timofey Skatov - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
25.04.21	Hugo Gaston - Andrea Pellegrino	1:2

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