Match Info

Date: 1 May 2022, Sunday


	Francis Tiafoe		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	2.3	1.61	Watch
	2.3	1.6
	2.35	1.6
	2.27	1.59
	2.42	1.64
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.42	1.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (1.81)	1.6 ↓ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
40.6%

Sebastian Baez
59.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

49.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

50.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Francis Tiafoe's form might have worsened.

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sebastian Baez's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Francis Tiafoe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sebastian Baez, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.8%	0%	45.2%

Francis Tiafoe - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Tiafoe will win (votes: 17 - 54.8%). Baez will win (votes: 14 - 45.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tiafoe: 37.3% – 72.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Now both players are in good shape.

Tiafoe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Baez will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Baez to win the game is with odds 1.61.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Estoril
30.04.22	Sebastian Korda - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
29.04.22	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
27.04.22	Nuno Borges - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
25.04.22	Dusan Lajovic - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
22.04.22	Francis Tiafoe - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWWWL
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Estoril
30.04.22	Sebastian Baez - Albert Ramos-Vinolas	2:1 ✺
29.04.22	Richard Gasquet - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
28.04.22	Sebastian Baez - Marin Cilic	2:1 ✺
26.04.22	Joao Sousa - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
18.04.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWL

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