Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Lorenzo Musetti		Francisco Cerundolo

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.9	1.9
	1.86	1.95	Watch
	1.94	1.95
	1.89	1.9	Watch
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.94	1.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.59)	1.93 ↓ (2.33)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
50.5%

Francisco Cerundolo
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorenzo Musetti's form might have worsened.

Francisco Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Francisco Cerundolo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Musetti, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Francisco Cerundolo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.2%	0%	14.8%

Lorenzo Musetti - Francisco Cerundolo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Musetti will win (23 of 27 users predict this - 85.19%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.79% – 98.59%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 10. Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 27.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Musetti won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Roma
08.05.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Jiri Lehecka - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.26	Arthur Fils - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLWWL
- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Roma
08.05.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Alexander Blockx	0:2 ✺
27.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Yannick Hanfmann	2:0 ✺
ATP Munich
17.04.26	Alexander Zverev - Francisco Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Umag
27.07.24	Francisco Cerundolo - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1
ATP Hamburg
23.07.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0
ATP Challenger
03.09.20	Lorenzo Musetti - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0

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