Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 April 2026, Wednesday


	Francisco Cerundolo		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	1.3	3.5	Watch
			Watch
	1.32	3.35
	1.33	3.59
	1.32	3.41	Watch
	1.36	3.1	Watch
	1.31	3.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.56)	3.41 ↑ (2.45)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francisco Cerundolo
72.1%

Tomas Machac
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.2%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francisco Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Francisco Cerundolo's performance.

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tomas Machac might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (-14.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francisco Cerundolo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tomas Machac could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Francisco Cerundolo - Tomas Machac Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Cerundolo (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Francisco Cerundolo will win (22 of 24 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.61% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francisco Cerundolo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerundolo (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 19. Machac is ranked ATP: 53.

Cerundolo is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Machac has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cerundolo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Cerundolo could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cerundolo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
26.03.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Ugo Humbert - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
23.03.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WLWWW
- Tomas Machac
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Daniel Altmaier - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
ATP Marrakech
02.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Corentin Moutet - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Emilio Nava - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
23.02.26	Tomas Machac - Denis Shapovalov	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLLW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
23.08.20	Francisco Cerundolo - Tomas Machac	1:2

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