Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday


	Jan Choinski		Alexandre Muller

	1	2
			Watch
	2	1.7	Watch
	2.18	1.73
	1.97	1.8	Watch
	2	1.73
	1.92	1.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.29)	1.75 ↑ (1.58)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jan Choinski
46.4%

Alexandre Muller
53.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

59.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jan Choinski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jan Choinski's performance.

Alexandre Muller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alexandre Muller might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexandre Muller than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	0%	6.2%

Jan Choinski - Alexandre Muller Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Choinski will win (votes: 15 - 93.8%). Muller will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Choinski: 82% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jan Choinski will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Choinski is ranked ATP: 120. Muller is ranked ATP: 94.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Choinski may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Muller will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Choinski won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Jan Choinski - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.83%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
26.03.26	Jan Choinski - Roman Safiullin	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Jan Choinski - Tiago Pereira	2:0 ✺
18.03.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Jan Choinski	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Miguel Damas - Jan Choinski	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLWL
- Alexandre Muller
ATP Marrakech
03.04.26	Alexandre Muller - Rafael Jodar	Muller A. Retired ✺
02.04.26	Vit Kopriva - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
31.03.26	Federico Cina - Alexandre Muller	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.03.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
26.03.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Alexandre Muller	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 ?LWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
01.02.23	Jan Choinski - Alexandre Muller	1:2
07.10.22	Jan Choinski - Alexandre Muller	2:1

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