Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cagliari, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Nuno Borges

	1	2
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.83	1.87	Watch
	1.93	1.96
	1.79	1.94	Watch
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.8	1.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.11)	1.89 ↑ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
50.7%

Nuno Borges
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

56.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Arnaldi's performance.

Nuno Borges has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nuno Borges might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nuno Borges than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Matteo Arnaldi - Nuno Borges Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Borges will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 103. Borges is ranked ATP: 49.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Arnaldi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Arnaldi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Arnaldi - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 43.88%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Nuno Borges - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.12%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
29.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
20.04.26	Dusan Lajovic - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Quentin Halys	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Christian Garin - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLLL
- Nuno Borges
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Christian Garin - Nuno Borges	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Nuno Borges - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Nuno Borges	2:0 ✺
15.04.26	Nuno Borges - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:0 ✺
13.04.26	Nuno Borges - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
20.06.22	Nuno Borges - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1
ATP Challenger
09.03.22	Nuno Borges - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1

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