Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hamburg, clay - Final

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Hamburg 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	22:40	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	09:40	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	15:40	Max Sport 1
Czech Republic	14:40	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	14:40	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	15:40	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	14:40	Eurosport 2
Germany	14:40	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Greece	15:40	COSMOTE Sport 6
Netherlands	14:40	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	14:40	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	13:40	Sport TV3
Romania	15:40	Digi Sport 2
Sweden	14:40	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	15:40	Setanta Sports Premium
United Kingdom	13:40	Sky Sports Tennis


	Ignacio Buse		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.35	1.6	Watch
	2.3	1.6	Watch
	2.44	1.63
	2.42	1.59	Watch
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.35	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.33)	1.6 (1.6)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ignacio Buse
40.4%

Tommy Paul
59.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.7%

59.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

62.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ignacio Buse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ignacio Buse than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.4%	0%	58.6%

Ignacio Buse - Tommy Paul Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Buse will win (votes: 10 - 37%). Paul will win (votes: 17 - 63%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paul: 44.8% – 81.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Buse (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Paul (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Buse is ranked ATP: 57. Paul is ranked ATP: 26.

Buse is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Paul is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Buse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Paul might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Paul will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Ignacio Buse - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 40.71%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Tommy Paul - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 59.29%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ignacio Buse
ATP Hamburg
22.05.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Ignacio Buse	0:2 ✺
21.05.26	Ignacio Buse - Ugo Humbert	2:1 ✺
20.05.26	Ignacio Buse - Jakub Mensik	2:0 ✺
19.05.26	Flavio Cobolli - Ignacio Buse	0:2 ✺
17.05.26	Ignacio Buse - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWWWW
- Tommy Paul
ATP Hamburg
22.05.26	Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
21.05.26	Tommy Paul - Daniel Altmaier	2:0 ✺
20.05.26	Tommy Paul - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:1 ✺
17.05.26	Tommy Paul - Ethan Quinn	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
10.05.26	Tommy Paul - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ignacio Buse
ATP Paris
02.11.26	Ignacio Buse - Zizou Bergs	✺
- Tommy Paul
ATP Paris
02.11.26	Tommy Paul - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	✺

Ignacio Buse - Tommy Paul