Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hamburg, clay - Final

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Sport 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Ignacio Buse		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.35	1.6	Watch
	2.3	1.6	Watch
	2.44	1.63
	2.42	1.59	Watch
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.35	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.33)	1.6 (1.6)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ignacio Buse
40.4%

Tommy Paul
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

59.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

62.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ignacio Buse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ignacio Buse than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.4%	0%	58.6%

Ignacio Buse - Tommy Paul Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Buse will win (votes: 10 - 37%). Paul will win (votes: 17 - 63%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paul: 44.8% – 81.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Buse (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Paul (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Buse is ranked ATP: 57. Paul is ranked ATP: 26.

Buse is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Paul is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Buse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Paul might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Paul will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Ignacio Buse - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 40.71%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Tommy Paul - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 59.29%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ignacio Buse
ATP Hamburg
22.05.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Ignacio Buse	0:2 ✺
21.05.26	Ignacio Buse - Ugo Humbert	2:1 ✺
20.05.26	Ignacio Buse - Jakub Mensik	2:0 ✺
19.05.26	Flavio Cobolli - Ignacio Buse	0:2 ✺
17.05.26	Ignacio Buse - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWWWW
- Tommy Paul
ATP Hamburg
22.05.26	Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
21.05.26	Tommy Paul - Daniel Altmaier	2:0 ✺
20.05.26	Tommy Paul - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:1 ✺
17.05.26	Tommy Paul - Ethan Quinn	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
10.05.26	Tommy Paul - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWWL

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