Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Court Suzanne-Lenglen (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Jaime Faria		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
			Watch
	2.5	1.52
	2.6	1.59
	2.44	1.56	Watch
	2.5	1.53
	2.51	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.2)	1.55 ↓ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jaime Faria
38.1%

Francis Tiafoe
61.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaime Faria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jaime Faria's form might have worsened.

Francis Tiafoe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Francis Tiafoe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaime Faria than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.9%	0%	81.1%

Jaime Faria - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 39.5 Games - under (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Francis Tiafoe will win (30 of 37 users predict this - 81.08%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.46% – 93.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Faria is ranked ATP: 115. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 22.

Faria has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Tiafoe has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tiafoe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tiafoe might have a minor edge in this game.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Francis Tiafoe - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.85%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jaime Faria
ATP Roland Garros
28.05.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Jaime Faria	0:3 ✺
26.05.26	Jaime Faria - Denis Shapovalov	3:0 ✺
21.05.26	Jaime Faria - Lukas Neumayer	2:0 ✺
20.05.26	Jaime Faria - Colton Smith	2:1 ✺
19.05.26	Jaime Faria - Grigor Dimitrov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWWWW
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Roland Garros
28.05.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
25.05.26	Eliot Spizzirri - Francis Tiafoe	1:3 ✺
ATP Hamburg
20.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Francis Tiafoe	2:0 ✺
17.05.26	Diego Dedura-Palomero - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
11.05.26	Francis Tiafoe - Andrea Pellegrino	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWLWL

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