Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	20:40	ESPN
Belgium	00:40	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia And Herzegovina	00:40	HBO Max
Brazil	20:40	ESPN
Bulgaria	01:40	HBO Max
Canada	18:40	RDS App
Colombia	18:40	ESPN
Croatia	00:40	HBO Max
Czech Republic	00:40	HBO Max
Denmark	00:40	HBO Max
Finland	01:40	HBO Max
France	00:40	HBO Max
Hungary	00:40	HBO Max
Mexico	17:40	ESPN
Moldova	01:40	HBO Max
Montenegro	00:40	HBO Max
Netherlands	00:40	HBO Max
North Macedonia	00:40	HBO Max
Norway	00:40	HBO Max
Peru	18:40	ESPN
Poland	00:40	HBO Max
Romania	01:40	HBO Max
Serbia	00:40	HBO Max
Slovenia	00:40	HBO Max
Spain	00:40	HBO Max
Sweden	00:40	HBO Max
United Kingdom	23:40	Discovery+
Usa	18:40	ESPN USA
Venezuela	19:40	ESPN


	Karen Khachanov		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	1.22	4.33	Watch
	1.28	3.6
	1.22	4.4	Watch
	1.24	4.51
	1.2	4.54	Watch
	1.22	4.2
	1.19	4.78	Watch
	1.23	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.36)	4.32 ↑ (3.2)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karen Khachanov
77.9%

Luciano Darderi
22.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

70.2%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karen Khachanov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Karen Khachanov's performance.

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luciano Darderi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	0%	26.3%

Karen Khachanov - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Khachanov will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Darderi will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Khachanov: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 38.5 Games - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Khachanov (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 Sets - Darderi (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Karen Khachanov will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Khachanov (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Darderi (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Khachanov is ranked ATP: 18. Darderi is ranked ATP: 25.

Khachanov may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Khachanov is the team to beat.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Karen Khachanov - the odds 1.36 are the expected chance of winning is 70.18%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karen Khachanov
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Karen Khachanov - Nishesh Basavareddy	3:0 ✺
19.01.26	Karen Khachanov - Alex Michelsen	3:2 ✺
ATP Hong Kong
08.01.26	Michael Mmoh - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
ATP Paris
30.10.25	Karen Khachanov - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
29.10.25	Karen Khachanov - Joao Fonseca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLLW
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	1:3 ✺
19.01.26	Christian Garin - Luciano Darderi	0:3 ✺
ATP Auckland
14.01.26	Luciano Darderi - Marcos Giron	1:2 ✺
13.01.26	Luciano Darderi - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
ATP Athens
05.11.25	Miomir Kecmanovic - Luciano Darderi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karen Khachanov
ATP Paris
02.11.26	Denis Shapovalov - Karen Khachanov	✺

Karen Khachanov - Luciano Darderi