Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 April 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina		Casper Ruud

	1	2
	3.2	1.36	Watch
	3.1	1.36	Watch
	2.95	1.41
	3.15	1.43
	2.87	1.42	Watch
	3.1	1.36	Watch
	3.01	1.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.53)	1.4 ↓ (1.51)

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
31.4%

Casper Ruud
68.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

62.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's form might have worsened.

Casper Ruud has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Casper Ruud's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Casper Ruud, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.2%	0%	95.8%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Casper Ruud Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Ruud (1.91) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Casper Ruud will win (23 of 24 users predict this - 95.83%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.83% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruud (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 24. Ruud is ranked ATP: 15.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Davidovich Fokina won 2.

Davidovich Fokina has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ruud is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ruud will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Ruud will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Davidovich Fokina won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.5:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Casper Ruud - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 62.62%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Quentin Halys	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.26	Learner Tien - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Jakub Mensik	2:1 ✺
06.03.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Zachary Svajda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLWW
- Casper Ruud
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Jaume Munar - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Casper Ruud	3:2 ✺
08.04.26	Corentin Moutet - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Alexei Popyrin - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
Exhibition UTS Championship Men
04.04.26	Casper Ruud - Alexander Bublik	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Basel
24.10.25	Casper Ruud - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Ruud C. retired
ATP Roland Garros
30.05.24	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Casper Ruud	2:3
ATP Miami
24.03.24	Casper Ruud - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Toronto
10.08.23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Casper Ruud	2:1
ATP Roland Garros
04.06.21	Casper Ruud - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:3
ATP Next Gen Finals
06.11.19	Casper Ruud - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3:2

Upcoming Matches