Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Vienna, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Vienna 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Luciano Darderi		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	2.10	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.75
	2.06	1.76	Watch
	2.01	1.74	Watch
	2.09	1.77
	2.08	1.78	Watch
	2.07	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.91)	1.75 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luciano Darderi
45.9%

Matteo Arnaldi
54.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.9%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luciano Darderi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Luciano Darderi - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Darderi will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Darderi: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Darderi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Darderi is ranked ATP: 23., and Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 36..

Darderi is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Arnaldi have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Darderi has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1.5:1.5 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luciano Darderi
ATP Almaty
21.10.26	James Duckworth - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
10.10.26	Luciano Darderi - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
02.10.26	Kyrian Jacquet - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
30.09.26	Luciano Darderi - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
07.09.26	Alexander Zverev - Luciano Darderi	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLLWL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Lyon
19.10.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
10.10.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
08.10.26	Bernard Tomic - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
02.10.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
30.09.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Rei Sakamoto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
18.05.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Luciano Darderi	1:2
21.03.22	Luciano Darderi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2

Luciano Darderi - Matteo Arnaldi