Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lisbon 🌤️ ...


	Marco Trungelliti		Matej Dodig

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.28	1.60	Watch
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.40	1.59
	2.23	1.58	Watch
	2.20	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.99)	1.57 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco Trungelliti
40.7%

Matej Dodig
59.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.4%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco Trungelliti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marco Trungelliti's form might have worsened.

Matej Dodig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matej Dodig's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marco Trungelliti, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matej Dodig than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matej Dodig, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Marco Trungelliti - Matej Dodig Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 90., and Dodig is ranked ATP: 138..

Both players are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Trungelliti could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Our forecast points to a victory for Dodig in today's match, at odds of 1.72.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Marco Trungelliti - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 46.36%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Matej Dodig - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 53.64%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Challenger
21.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Carlo Alberto Caniato	2:1 ✺
20.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Tiago Pereira	2:1 ✺
16.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Francesco Passaro	1:2 ✺
15.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Milos Karol	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLWW
- Matej Dodig
ATP Challenger
21.10.26	Matej Dodig - Marco Cecchinato	2:1 ✺
20.10.26	Matej Dodig - Joao Domingues	2:0 ✺
17.10.26	Francesco Passaro - Matej Dodig	2:1 ✺
16.10.26	Matej Dodig - Tristan Boyer	2:0 ✺
15.10.26	Matej Dodig - Lukas Neumayer	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Challenger
24.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Alexander Ritschard	✺

Marco Trungelliti - Matej Dodig: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide