Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali 2, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday


	Marco Trungelliti		Max Houkes

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
			Watch
	1.4	2.65
	1.45	2.95
	1.41	2.68	Watch
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.4	2.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.35)	2.73 ↓ (2.92)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco Trungelliti
65.8%

Max Houkes
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.4%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.9%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco Trungelliti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Max Houkes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Max Houkes than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Marco Trungelliti - Max Houkes Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Trungelliti will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Houkes will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Houkes (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 132. Houkes is ranked ATP: 245.

Trungelliti is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Houkes has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Trungelliti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Trungelliti will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Trungelliti won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Challenger
11.03.26	Marco Trungelliti - Jonas Forejtek	2:1 ✺
09.03.26	Marco Trungelliti - Pol Martin Tiffon	2:0 ✺
05.03.26	Marco Trungelliti - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Marco Trungelliti - Florent Bax	2:0 ✺
02.03.26	Marco Trungelliti - Garrett Johns	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLWW
- Max Houkes
ATP Challenger
11.03.26	Alexander Donski - Max Houkes	0:2 ✺
10.03.26	Max Houkes - Luka Pavlovic	2:1 ✺
03.03.26	Max Houkes - Ryan Nijboer	0:2 ✺
16.02.26	Max Houkes - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Max Houkes - Pierre Antoine Faut	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
10.11.22	Max Houkes - Marco Trungelliti	0:2

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